Former President Donald Trump is making significant strides in the race for the 2024 White House, according to recent data. As of now, Trump holds a promising 50.9% chance of winning the election, per a J.L. Partners model.

This model tracks various trends and shows Trump’s growing momentum in battleground states once thought to be Democratic strongholds, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as reported by Trending Politics News.

Aug 29, 2024; La Crosse, Wisconsin; USA; Former President Donald Trump speaks at a town hall event hosted by Tulsi Gabbard at the La Crosse Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY Network

These key states were instrumental in President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, but Trump’s resurgence appears to be driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, immigration, and the current administration’s economic policies.

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J.L. Partners uses a sophisticated two-stage Bayesian process, combining historical data with current polling trends. This model considers economic indicators, approval ratings, and voter behavior, looking at trends dating back 80 years. It focuses on state-level polling in addition to national data, ensuring it captures regional shifts, particularly in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, where Trump has made significant gains.

U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., gives an interview to the Des Moines Register’s Rekha Basu after the West Des Moines Democrats summer picnic on Wednesday, July 3, 2019, at Legion Park in West Des Moines. 0703 Harris Klobuchar 016 Jpg

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Kamala Harris, who is attempting to hold on to these crucial Rust Belt states, is finding the challenge daunting. Working-class voters in these regions, fed up with the economy and other issues, are increasingly backing Trump. Harris’s struggles to maintain control of these areas spell trouble for the Democrats as the election looms.

One of the most notable aspects of the J.L. Partners model is its reliance on autoregressive Bayesian algorithms. This approach predicts trends even in states with limited polling by using data from demographically and economically similar states. For example, polling data from Pennsylvania can provide insights into voter behavior in Illinois, making the model particularly effective at forecasting.

The post-debate landscape has not been kind to Harris, either. Despite a large viewership for the presidential debate, where many initially thought Harris performed well, the polling numbers didn’t reflect a major boost for her. Many voters believed ABC moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis were biased against Trump, which didn’t help Harris gain significant ground, as reported by The Post Millennial.

While national polls show Harris leading by a slim margin, she hasn’t been able to pull away in key battleground states. Even Democratic-leaning polls reflect only a modest uptick for Harris, and she has consistently underperformed compared to Biden and Clinton in previous races against Trump.

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Mark Penn, a former adviser to the Clintons, has raised concerns about ABC’s debate coverage, suggesting it appeared skewed in favor of Harris. This bias likely influenced public perception, and ABC’s ratings have since taken a hit as viewers noticed the uneven treatment of the candidates.

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