Newsmax political analyst Mark Halperin suggested Friday that Kamala Harris may have a narrow path to victory in the Electoral College, relying heavily on winning the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

According to RealClearPolling averages, Harris trails former President Donald Trump in five of the top seven swing states, with only slim leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Speaking on Wake Up America, Halperin explained that while Harris’s campaign has significant financial backing, the focus appears to be shifting away from a Sun Belt strategy, which initially seemed viable given her campaign’s resources and outreach. “I don’t think it’s impossible for her to win some of the Sun Belt states, and I don’t think she’s given up. She’s got so much money and it’s still coming in that she can fully fund those states,” Halperin said.

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However, he noted, “If you’re asking about their Electoral College calculations, they’re certainly not emphasizing the Sun Belt.”

Halperin referenced earlier campaign discussions when Harris replaced Joe Biden on the ticket, where a Sun Belt strategy was considered.

But the focus, he suggested, now appears squarely on the Midwest states. “If they’re not 100% down to winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, they’re pretty close to it at this point,” he said.

The shift to the Midwest gives Trump potential pathways to 270 electoral votes, Halperin added. “As her chances of winning the four bigger Sun Belt states have receded, that gives Trump more options to get to 270 … Trump has a chance to win all three of the Midwestern states, the Great Lake states,” he continued. “And he just probably will need one to win it. And he leads a movement, she doesn’t. And doubts about her continue.”

The tight race in these swing states has also drawn attention to polling methods and accuracy.

Statistician Nate Silver criticized pollsters on Thursday for what he described as overly synchronized polling results, suggesting that pollsters may be influencing outcomes to appear closer than they are.

“I don’t think we’re going to learn very much in this last week of the polling,” Silver said. “In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less. Every time a pollster says, ‘Oh, every state is just a plus one. Every single state’s a tie.’ No, you’re herding. You’re cheating. You’re cheating,” he added, emphasizing his concerns with polling transparency. “Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying. You’re putting your f**king finger on the scale.”

Nate Silver to pollsters: “You’re f*cking herding. You’re cheating … Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying. You’re putting your f*cking finger on the scale.” pic.twitter.com/kowED2GiBd

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 31, 2024

With both campaigns facing high stakes in the swing states, the focus on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin indicates the central role the Midwest will play in determining the outcome of the 2024 election.

Harris’s ability to secure these states may be her clearest path to victory, while Trump’s lead in the Sun Belt and competitive position in the Midwest could provide him with multiple avenues to reach the necessary 270 electoral votes.