Heading into Election Day, the latest vote-by-mail numbers from Pennsylvania indicate potential trouble for Kamala Harris.

Democrats, who had anticipated a significant lead in early ballots, are now facing a much smaller margin than expected, raising questions about Harris’s standing in the critical battleground state.

Pennsylvania political consultant Mark Davin Harris reported the latest figures on social media, noting that Democrats netted just 2,411 votes from Monday’s vote-by-mail returns, far below their anticipated lead. “PA VBM update – Strong update today. Dems only squeak out 2,411 net votes. Starting to really run out of ramp. GOP likely to take over the return rate lead,” Harris wrote on X, clarifying that the initial 50,000-vote projection was intended only for Monday’s count. Instead, he confirmed that the Democrats’ current mail-in vote lead stands at a total of 413,000 ballots.

To be clear 2,411 for the day. Bringing to 413k total

— Mark Davin Harris (@markdharris) November 5, 2024

Trump Surging to Victory – Get the Ultimate Trumpinator Bobblehead as He Closes in on 2024!

The surprisingly low lead drew reactions from pollsters, including Rich Baris, president of Big Data Poll, who expressed disbelief. “Mark, these numbers are real? Not a reporting error?” Baris questioned in response, highlighting the unusual nature of these returns.

Mark, these numbers are real? Not a reporting error?

I’m serious, not an error?

— Rich Baris The People’s Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 4, 2024

Pollsters have had difficulty predicting Pennsylvania’s outcome in the Trump-Harris matchup, and Monday’s results suggest a possible advantage for Trump.

While FiveThirtyEight polling averages give Harris a narrow lead, the two most recent surveys, conducted on Sunday and Monday, indicate that Trump is ahead by one point.

Other trends in Pennsylvania also point to a possible shift in Trump’s favor.

A recent report by Politico highlighted a surge in enthusiasm for Trump among Latino voters, a traditionally Democratic demographic, particularly in Pennsylvania cities such as Reading, where Latino communities have a strong presence.

Trump’s campaign has focused heavily on Pennsylvania’s Latino population, with efforts targeting Puerto Rican and Dominican communities.

In Reading, where Latinos make up nearly 69 percent of the population, the Trump team has been engaging directly, even establishing a “Latino Americans for Trump” office in the city center.

A fantastic grand opening of the “Latino Americans for Trump” office in Reading, Pennsylvania with @DaveMcCormickPA, former Governor of Puerto Rico Luis Fortuno, and Berks County Commissioner Michael Rivera!

Make America Great Again! pic.twitter.com/O6y9zxdTuH

— GOP (@GOP) June 13, 2024

The campaign’s strategy is to capitalize on Trump’s appeal among blue-collar voters, while simultaneously making inroads in areas Democrats have previously dominated.

Meanwhile, tensions have emerged within the Harris campaign’s Pennsylvania team, particularly regarding their Philadelphia strategy.

Democratic leaders and campaign staff have expressed concerns over campaign manager Nikki Liu, who is originally from Pittsburgh.

BREAKING — Top Democrats in Pennsylvania are worried Harris’ operation is being poorly run, reports POLITICO.

Democrats have been concerned for months that Harris’ campaign doesn’t understand Pennsylvania and isn’t connecting with ‘voters of color’ in Philly and Pittsburgh. pic.twitter.com/IHaUIp0JDs

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) October 16, 2024

Ryan Boyer, a key labor leader in Philadelphia, openly criticized the choice of Liu, saying, “I have concerns about Nikki Liu. I don’t think she understands Philadelphia.”

According to Boyer and other Democratic insiders, Liu’s lack of experience in Philadelphia politics may be hampering efforts to mobilize low-turnout Democratic voters in the area.

Further complicating the campaign’s path in Pennsylvania, U.S. Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) made waves earlier this year by predicting a Trump victory in his home state.

During an interview in August, Fetterman said, “I think if you match up Trump with Harris, and I think that’s what this is really about, and I do believe he’s going to win Pennsylvania.”

He cited the enthusiasm he’s seen among white working-class voters, who have traditionally leaned toward Trump in past elections.

With these challenges, the Harris campaign faces a crucial battle in Pennsylvania, as vote-by-mail numbers indicate that their advantage may not be as strong as they hoped.

Both Trump and Harris have concentrated significant resources on Pennsylvania, given its role as a key swing state.

Harris’s campaign has focused on turning out urban voters, especially in Philadelphia, while Trump is leaning on his appeal to blue-collar and Latino voters in the state.

As Election Day unfolds, the latest mail-in ballot data and on-the-ground support suggest that Pennsylvania may come down to the wire, leaving both campaigns reliant on last-minute turnout efforts.

For now, the slim early vote margin signals a tight race in Pennsylvania, a state that could be pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2024 election.